I've been reading a bit about the latest NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) on Iran from the CIA. The NIE four months ago said Iran was trying to make nukes, today it says Iran stopped trying to make nukes in 2003. People are citing this as a blow to Bush's foreign policy. That's retarded. What happened in 2003 that could've made Iran stop making nukes? We invaded Iraq. Thus if Iran did in fact stop trying to make nukes in 2003, it was as a successful result of Bush's middle east strategy, and a blow to isolationists who claim our invasion of Iraq made everything worse and helped nothing.

Beyond that, can the NIE be trusted? Not really. It's written by the sort of CIA officials who are not spies, but simply academics who couldn't find anything else to do with their doctorates. Heck, put me in a public policy program at a major university, and I could be writing NIEs for the CIA in a few years. My understanding is that the estimate and operations sides of the CIA don't really talk, which means the NIE is based on analysis, and not on say a spy who was undercover in Iran and got the juicy news. Further suspicion is raised by the fact that the report completely contradicts one from four months ago, and that several of the analysts who wrote the report are well known anti-Bush bureaucrats, as much of the state department is, as well. And don't forget that Israel, who probably have a lot more spies actually inside Iran, says they don't put any credence in the NIE and think that Iran is still pursuing nukes.